05BUCHAREST1641 / 2005-07-25 13:57:00
Embassy Bucharest
                UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001641 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH, JANE MESSENGER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, KDEM, ECON, RO, biographic information, poll, political assessment 
SUBJECT: LATEST ROMANIAN POLLS - PRESIDENT BASESCU STILL 
POPULAR, BUT NUMBERS DROPPING 
 
REF: A. BUCHAREST 01378, B. BUCHAREST 01084 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  Opinion polls conducted in July indicated 
a slight decline in support for both President Basescu and 
his center-right Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD) Alliance. 
Support for Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu dropped 
more dramatically, coinciding with his recent vacillation 
over whether to resign and force new elections. At the same 
time, few Romanians want new elections, with roughly 60 
percent opposing an early vote. Minister of Culture and 
Religion Mona Musca remains the most popular cabinet member, 
with the ministers of Justice and Foreign Affairs close 
behind. End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Two recent opinion polls carried out by respected 
pollsters provide a snapshot of evolving political 
attitudes, coinciding with recent controversy surrounding 
the PM's vacillation whether to resign and force snap 
elections.  The independent Center for Urban Center for 
Urban and Regional Studies (CURS) conducted an omnibus poll 
between July 10 and 17 among 1050 respondents over the age 
of 18, with a margin of error of 3 percent.  The opposition 
center-left Social Democratic Party-leaning Marketing and 
Public Opinion Poll Institute (IMAS) conducted its poll 
between July 7 and 15 among 1252 respondents, with a margin 
of error of 3 percent. 
 
 
CURS:  A MAJORITY OPPOSES NEW ELECTIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
3. (U) The CURS poll, focusing on a range of political 
issues, produced the following results: 
 
- Do you think early elections would be good or bad for 
Romania? 
- Good                               29 percent 
- Bad                                59 
- Don't know, no response            12 
 
- If early elections were to be held this Sunday, which 
party would you choose? (Of those respondents who expressed 
an opinion.) 
- PNL-PD                              45 percent 
- PSD                                 30 
- PRM (Great Romanian Party)          10 
- UDMR (Ethnic Hungarian Party)        6 
- PC (Conservative Party, former PUR)  3 
- Others                               6 
 
- How satisfied are you with the following Cabinet 
Ministers? (Note: The titles/portfolios of each minister 
were not included in the question. End Note.) 
 
 
                (Very) Satisfied  Not Satisfied  Don't Know 
- Mona Musca         56 percent       29            15 
  Religion/Culture 
- Monica Macovei     39               35            26 
  Justice 
- Mihai Ungureanu    37               23            40 
  External Affairs 
- Gheorghe Flutur    29               33            38 
  Agriculture 
- Marko Bella        25               47            28 
  Minister of State 
- Codruts Seres      25               44            21 
  Minister of State 
- Ionut Popescu      24               39            37 
  Finance 
- Teodor Atansiu     23               29            48 
  Defense 
- Vasile Blaga       23               26            51 
  Interior and Administration 
- George Copos       19               32            49 
  Minister of State 
- Mircea Cinteza     15               49            36 
  Health 
- Sulfina Barbu      15               42            43 
  Environment 
- Mircea Miclea      14               31            55 
  Education 
- Gheorghe Dobre     14               29            57 
  Transport 
- Gheorghe Barbu     11               27            62 
  Labor 
- Gheorghe Seculici  10               24            66 
  Minister of State 
- Zsolt Nagy         10               20            70 
  Communications and IT 
- Mihai Voicu         9               18            73 
  Minister Delegate of Coordination 
- Bogdan Olteanu      8               20            72 
  Minister Delegate of Parliament Relations 
- Ene Dinga           6               18            76 
  EU Integration 
- Cristian David      5               19            76 
  Minister Delegate International Finances 
 
4. (SBU)  In a separate question, 57 percent of respondents 
believed that Presidential Counselor and former PNL leader 
Teodor Stolojan would be the best Prime Minister, as opposed 
to 20 percent who favored incumbent Calin Popescu-Tariceanu. 
 
 
IMAS: PNL-PD SUPPORT DECLINING 
------------------------------ 
5. (U) The IMAS poll provides an indication of relative 
trends during the first seven months of PNL-PD government. 
Results are compared to responses to the same question asked 
in January, March, June, and July 2005.  Most striking is 
the significant drop in support for PM Tariceanu, with 
similar erosion for Basescu. 
 
- Which party would you vote for if elections were to be 
held this Sunday? 
                Jan 2005     March     June     July 
PNL-PD          66 percent     54        55       47 
PSD             19             28        23       32 
PRM              7              9        10       12 
UDMR             5              5         6        5 
Others           3              5         5        4 
 
- How much confidence do you have in the following public 
figures? 
                 Jan 2005     March     June     July 
Traian Basescu   73 percent     58        58       50 
Mircea Geoana    44             40        41       38 
C. Tariceanu     65             48        42       34 
Adrian Nastase   27             31        26       30 
Emil Boc         39             27        26       27 
C. Vadim Tudor   21             19        17       22 
Marko Bela       15             11        15       11 
Cozmin Gusa       -              -        11       10 
Dan Voiculescu    9              8         6        7 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: Both polls were completed before PM 
Tariceanu's July 19 announcement that he would not resign. 
Given the general public disapproval of his vacillation 
before that announcement and his initial lack of focus on 
flood relief, his standing would likely be lower in polling 
conducted today.  Interestingly, the two most popular 
cabinet members were both women, perhaps positively 
indicating a hairline crack in Romania's historic "glass 
ceiling" that has impeded women political figures from 
moving forward in the past. End Comment. 
 
7. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are 
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest. 
 
TAPLIN 

            
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