05BUCHAREST1378 / 2005-06-17 13:22:00
Embassy Bucharest
                UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001378 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, KDEM, ECON, RO, political assessment, poll 
SUBJECT:  POLLS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR BASESCU, CENTER- 
RIGHT ALLIANCE 
 
REF: BUCHAREST 001084 
 
1.  Summary: Opinion polls conducted in May and June 
indicate continued strong support for President Traian 
Basescu, particularly after the release of three Romanian 
hostages from Iraq on May 22.  A poll of June 14 showed 
Basescu with an approval rating of 71 percent while his 
center-right Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD) Alliance also 
received high marks.  Another major poll, conducted during 
the recently concluded hostage crisis, showed continued 
concern about corruption, and a lack of faith in the 
parliament and political parties.  End Summary. 
 
CURS POLL:  BASESCU AND PNL-PD RIDING HIGH 
------------------------------------------ 
2.  The June 14 CURS poll was conducted June 3-10 among 1005 
respondents over 18 years-old throughout the country. 
Margin of error is 3.1 percent. Key questions and responses 
are as follows: 
 
-- How do you feel about the following political 
personalities in Romania? 
 
                     Bad/         Good/        Don't Know 
                     Very Bad     Very Good 
 
Traian Basescu        27 percent   71             2 
Mircea Geoana         29           60            11 
C.Popescu-Tariceanu   33           57            10 
Emil Boc              30           44            26 
C.V. Tudor            60           32             8 
Gheorghe Ciuhandu     27           27            46 
Cozmin Gusa           31           24            45 
Dan Voiculescu        41           20            39 
Marko Bela            60           18            22 
 
(Note: The question did not include PSD former President Ion 
Iliescu or former Prime Minister Adrian Nastase. End note). 
 
-- If elections were held this Sunday, which party would you 
vote for?  (Percentage is of respondents who expressed an 
opinion.) 
 
DA Alliance(PNL-PD)   50 percent 
PSD                   28 
PRM                    8 
UDMR                   5 
PC (former PUR)        3 
PNG                    2 
PIN                    1 
PPCD (former PNTCD)    1 
Other                  2 
 
-- For those who would have voted for the PNL-PD, which of 
the two party components has your support? 
 
PD                    44 percent 
PNL                   38 
No preference         17 
Don't know/No resp.    1 
 
 
-- For those who would have voted for the PNL-PD, do you 
think that these two parties should: 
 
Unite into one party                 49 percent 
Remain in alliance, but separate     33 
Break the alliance, keep two parties 11 
Don't Know/No response                7 
 
GALLUP: BASESCU WOULD WIN IF NEW ELECTIONS HELD 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
3.  Gallup Romania and the Open Society Foundation conducted 
their poll May 6-19 among 1800 respondents over 18 years- 
old.  The margin of error is 2.3%.  The following are 
highlights of key election questions asked: 
 
-- If elections were to be held next Sunday, who would you 
choose as president of Romania?  (Percentage is of 
respondents who expressed an opinion.) 
 
PNL-PD Traian Basescu 65 Percent 
PSD Adrian Nastase    15 
PSD Mircea Geoana      6 
PRM Valim Tudor        6 
PSD Ion Iliescu        3 
Others                 5 
 
-- If elections were to be held next Sunday, which party 
would you choose?  (Percentage is of respondents who 
expressed an opinion.) 
 
DA Alliance (PNL-PD)  59 Percent 
PSD                   24 
UDMR                   7 
PRM                    7 
Others                 3 
-- How much confidence do you have in: 
 
                     Little/Very    Positive/   Don't know 
                     Little/None    Lots        him/No resp 
Traian Basescu        42 Percent        59        4 
C.Popescu-Tariceanu   57                34       11 
Mircea Geoana         56                31       13 
Theodor Stolojan      60                31       10 
Adrian Nastase        75                20        5 
Emil Boc              57                20       23 
Ion Iliescu           78                16        6 
Valim Tudor           79                13        8 
Marko Bela            80                 9       10 
Dan Voiculescu        72                 6       22 
 
-- Can you tell me the name of Romania's president? 
Traian Basescu        96 Percent 
Don't know             4 
 
-- How about Romania's Prime Minister? 
C.Popescu-Tariceanu   74 Percent 
Adrian Nastase         1 
Don't know            25 
 
-- And Romania's Minister of Foreign Affairs? 
Mihai R. Ungureanu    23 Percent 
Mircea Geoana          2 
Don't know            75 
 
... BUT DON'T HAVE MUCH FAITH IN PARLIAMENT, PARTIES 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
4.  The Gallup survey also included extensive polling on the 
economic status of respondents, feelings about their 
personal future and the future of Romania, and continued 
concern about corruption.  Notable questions included: 
 
-- How much confidence do you have in: 
 
                      Positive          Great Deal of 
                      Confidence        Confidence 
the Church            44 Percent        39 
military              49                13 
mass media            50                12 
EU                    38                10 
NATO                  37                11 
the president         38                 8 
your local mayor      36                 7 
the police            31                 5 
financial institutions29                 4 
the government        26                 4 
NGOs                  24                 4 
the judicial system   22                 3 
the Parliament        19                 3 
political parties     11                 2 
 
 
-- In your opinion, corruption in Romania: 
 
is prevalent and exists at all levels   78 Percent 
exists only at higher levels            10 
exists only at lower levels              1 
does not exist                           1 
don't know/no response                  10 
 
-- How do you think most wealthy people in Romania became 
successful? 
 
breaking the law                        56 Percent 
who you know                            13 
hard work and self-merit                10 
luck                                     8 
others                                   4 
don't know                               9 
-- In your opinion, in the fight against corruption the 
present government has taken: 
 
Very many measures                       4 percent 
Many measures                           25 
Few measures                            35 
Very few measures                       12 
No measures                              7 
Undecided/don't know                    17 
 
-- How much monthly income is necessary for your family to 
live a decent life? (Responses only from families of four) 
 
Urban                 Lei 22 mn (USD730) 
Rural                 Lei 15 mn (USD500) 
 
-- How much money did your family earn last month? 
(Responses only from families of four) 
 
Urban                 Lei 12 mn (USD400) 
Rural                 Lei  7 mn (USD230) 
 
-- In four years' time, do you think your economic situation 
will be better, the same, or worse? 
 
Better                40 Percent 
The same              28 
Worse                 14 
Don't know            17 
 
-- In four years' time, do you think Romania' economy will 
be better, the same, or worse? 
 
Better                42 Percent 
The same              24 
Worse                 16 
Don't know            18 
 
-- Is Romania heading in the right direction? 
44%  yes 
43%  no 
13%  don't know 
 
5.  Comment: The results of these two recent polls confirm 
that Basescu and the PNL-PD Alliance still remain popular 
after six months in office.  No doubt, Basescu's successful 
resolution in bringing home the three Romanian hostages from 
Iraq contributes to this continued buoyancy.  Interestingly, 
Gallup also noted that this was the first time since 1997 
that more respondents expressed belief that the country is 
headed in the right direction than not. 
Former FM Geoana's strong showing in the CURS poll followed 
his election as PSD president at the April 21 party 
conference.  End Comment. 
 
6.  AmEmbassy Bucharest's Reporting telegrams, as well as 
daily press summaries, are available on the Bucharest 
SIPRNet website:  www.state.sgov/gov/p/eur/bucharest 
 
DELARE 

            
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