04BRUSSELS2593 / 2004-06-17 15:52:00
Embassy Brussels
                C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, EAID, XA, XF, TU, HR, RO, BG, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: MANY EU SUMMIT FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY 
DECISIONS PRECOOKED 
 
REF: A. USEU BRUSSELS 2368 
     B. USEU BRUSSELS 2369 
     C. USEU BRUSSELS 2502 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) During the EU Summit June 17-18 in Brussels, EU 
sources tell us EU leaders will approve a range of pre-cooked 
decisions on a broad range of foreign policy topics so that 
they can focus on Constitutional Treaty negotiations and 
top-level appointments (septel).  EU leaders are expected to 
endorse recent proposals from High Rep Solana and 
Commissioner Patten on EU engagement in Iraq, and instruct 
foreign ministers to agree on a package of "appropriate first 
steps."  The EU will also issue fairly anodyne language on 
Iran.  On the MEPP, EU leaders are to "reaffirm the readiness 
of the EU to work with the US and other partners in 
cooperating with the countries concerned."  Leaders will 
agree to start drafting the Accession Treaty for Romania and 
Bulgaria in July 2004, open accession negotiations with 
Croatia "early in 2005", and "welcome significant progress" 
made by Turkey toward qualifying for the start of accession 
negotiations.  Leaders will also issue a decision outlining 
procedures for an ESDP Operations Center. Our initial read of 
this ESDP document is that it preserves UK redlines (more 
septel).  One topic that may see new language is Afghanistan, 
depending on the discussion at the Foreign Ministers' June 17 
dinner.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) The Irish Presidency has released (on www.eu2004.ie) 
the Draft Conclusions for this week's EU Summit.  Council 
sources say this draft can effectively be viewed as the final 
Conclusions, since Heads will not have any serious discussion 
of most of the topics.  At most two hours on Friday morning 
are set aside to review the text, and in those two hours the 
focus is supposed to be on the Justice and Home Affairs 
section.  EU FMs, at dinner on Thursday will discuss MEPP, 
Iran (on both of which Conclusions are already set) and 
Afghanistan (the one topic that might still be added to these 
draft Conclusions). 
 
IRAQ:  EU TO DECIDE "FIRST STEPS" IN JULY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The Summit Conclusions welcome UNSCR 1546 and the 
Commission Communication "The EU and Iraq - A Framework for 
Engagement" as well as the accompanying letter from High Rep 
Solana and External Relations Commissioner Patten (REFS B and 
C).  The Summit will instruct the July 12-13 GAERC to "agree 
appropriate first steps to be taken" that could include: 
technical, economic and reconstruction assistance; close 
engagement with UN teams, including on elections; enhancing 
EU representation in Iraq, as (security) conditions permit; 
beginning political dialogue; and urging neighbors to be 
constructive.  EU leaders also propose an EU-Iraq Troika 
(presumably at FM-level) with the "new Iraqi government as 
soon as possible" and an invitation to the Iraqi PM to 
address the EU's General Affairs and External Relations 
Council (GAERC).  Conclusions also "welcome the possibility 
of an international meeting to support the Iraqi political 
transition and Iraqi recovery."  The Summit Conclusions do 
not repeat June 14 GAERC's mention of the prisoner abuse 
issue. 
 
BMENA: "READINESS TO WORK WITH U.S." 
------------------------------------ 
 
4. (SBU) The summit will endorse the "Strategic Partnership 
with the Mediterranean and the Middle East" highlighting 
familiar themes.  In the section directly relevant to the 
Broader Middle East and North Africa initiative, EU 
"reaffirms the readiness of the EU to work with the U.S. and 
other partners in cooperating with the countries concerned. 
It looks forward to reviewing the MEPP and exploring the 
possibilities for coordinating our respective efforts to 
assist the reform process at the coming EU-US Summit on 26 
June 2004."  The Summit will also issue a page and a half of 
Conclusions specifically on the Middle East Peace Process, 
but these include nothing of substance that the EU has not 
already said several times before, including reaffirmation of 
the centrality of the road map. 
 
IRAN: WAITING FOR THE IAEA 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (C)  In a single paragraph on Iran, the EU "stresses the 
Union's desire to move towards a closer relationship with 
Iran, on the basis of action by Iran to address the EU's 
concerns" on the nuclear program, terrorism, human rights and 
Iran's approach to the MEPP.  The Conclusions note that "the 
EU will continue discussion in light of IAEA DG El-Baradei's 
report and the outcome of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting 
currently taking place in Vienna."  (COMMENT: These brief 
Conclusions reflect the Irish Presidency's desire (REF A) to 
avoid serious discussion of the Iran issue among leaders at 
this juncture.  END COMMENT.) 
ESDP Planning Cell: Careful Instructions on Next Steps 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
6. (C) The Conclusions include a remarkably detailed one-page 
section on "NATO/EU Consultation, Planning and Operations." 
The EU leaders ask High Rep Solana to work toward 
establishing SHAPE and NATO liaison arrangements by end 2004. 
 Heads also will agree to "work on establishing an operations 
centre" by 1 January 2006 at the latest.  In fairly 
restrictive terms, the text states "this will not be a 
standing HQ" and that national HQs remain the "main option" 
for "autonomous military operations."  The "objective" should 
be for an operations center able to plan and conduct 
operations "on the scale of operation Artemis" (NOTE: 
Artemis was the ESDP operation in Ituri, Congo, which was 
planned by French national HQ and involved about 1500, 
predominantly French, troops.  END NOTE).  The Summit will 
also "welcome the understanding that the civ/mil cell and 
facilities for an operations centre should be located in the 
same building as the main structures of the EUMS, as well as, 
to the maximum extent possible, with the pol-mil structures 
of DGE."  This language represents an explicit effort by 
several member states, led by the UK, to limit the size of 
the operations center (details septel). 
 
Enlargement: Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Turkey 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
7. (SBU) Responding to a successful lobbying effort by the 
Romanians, the EU will not (at least at this point) 
"decouple" Bulgaria and Romania in their path to the EU; both 
are still described as singing a single Accession Treaty "as 
early as possible in 2005" with the aim of joining the EU in 
January 2007.  In a legally meaningless, but politically 
significant, gesture, the Summit will decide that drafting of 
the Accession Treaty for both countries will begin in July 
2004 (even if the terms for Romania aren't fully set yet). 
The Summit will also announce that Croatia will begin 
accession negotiations "early in 2005", and the Commission 
will be asked to "prepare a pre-accession strategy" including 
details of how and when Croatia could get access to the much 
larger pots of assistance money available in those budget 
lines.  The Conclusions do include a useful reference that 
"emphasizes that Croatia needs to maintain full cooperation 
with ICTY and take all necessary steps to ensure that the 
remaining indictee is located and transferred to The Hague" 
as well as mention of minority rights, refugee returns, 
judicial reform, regional cooperation and anti-corruption. 
The Conclusions make no decisions about Turkey, but 
reaffirmed that a decision on whether to open negotiations 
with Turkey will be made in December.  At this stage, the EU 
"welcomes the significant progress made to date by Turkey in 
the reform process" and "the positive contribution of the 
Turkish Government" on Cyprus.  The Conclusions do include a 
mention of the need to adapt Turkey's Customs Union, (a 
document known as "the Ankara Agreement"), to an EU of 25. 
(NOTE: This is an issue we are told arose anew in the past 
couple of weeks when Ankara said it would extend the 
Agreement to all of the new Member States, other than the 
Republic of Cyprus.) 
 
Other External Relation Topics, Including US-EU Summit 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
8. (U) The Conclusions also cover a real laundry list of 
foreign policy topics, with passing references to HIV/AIDS, 
Millennium Development Goals, ESDP in Bosnia,  WMD strategy, 
human rights, and conflict prevention.  In a list of 
references to various EU-third country Summits, the EU 
"expresses its confidence that the strength, depth and 
significance of the EU-US relationship will be demonstrated 
in a successful EU-US Summit on 26 June; the relationship is 
also being reinforced through enhanced economic partnership 
and intensified business dialogue."   The EU also confirms 
its new European Neighborhood Policy will include Armenia, 
Azerbaijan and Georgia. 
 
Justice and Home Affairs 
------------------------ 
 
9. (U) The Conclusions on these topics are largely an 
inventory of achievements to date and a repetition of 
previously set deadlines.  They confirm that High Rep Solana 
is asked to create an intelligence capacity on terrorist 
threats in the Council Secretariat as soon as possible. 
Building on suggestions in the March 25 EU Summit 
Declaration, the Conclusions task the Council with drafting, 
by December 2004, a "coherent overall approach" to 
strengthening EU efforts to combat terrorist financing.  They 
also task the Council and Commission with developing by the 
end of 2004 an overall strategy on the protection of critical 
infrastructure, and with evaluating the capabilities of 
Member States in preventing and responding to a terrorist 
attack. 
 
SCHNABEL 

            
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